Dear Gunther Vogl, Altotting, Germany

You are the first to write me about global warming through the Mensa ClipSig. I have been interested in it for several years, but I never understood the part where they put the numbers in the computer and out came the results. C02, methane, freon, H20, etc all absorb a lot more heat than oxygen and nitrogen. Heat will cause water to expand and the ocean to rise. A hotter, more humid world will have more clouds that will reflect more heat into space (oops?) but which also reflect radiant heat from the ground right back to earth.

I am a chemist with no computer or weather knowledge, but I have studied two processes that changed, and I was trying to predict how long it would take for the changes to occur. The changes occurred much faster than I predicted. My company was reclaiming and reusing sulfuric acid by chilling and crystallizing iron sulfate. Some impurities increased each cycle, getting higher and higher. I thought it might take 10 to 14 cycles to reach equilibrium with the system solution losses, but it took only 4 to 7 cycles. This was because some cycles had a lot more contamination than average, which was like an extra step toward equilibrium.

My other project was evaluating the increased mineral load (pollution) on a small lake about 8km long. I thought it would take more than a year for the mineral buildup to reach equilibrium. It actually took 4 months. The reasons included a very dry spell, which exaggerated the normal variation, and incomplete circulation. The upstream end of the lake had very little mineral buildup because of lack of circulation.

These examples make me think we may see drastic weather pattern changes long before the one-meter ocean rise that's predicted. The amount of ocean rise can be calculated exactly if the amount of heat is known - - ten degrees in 1 m3 of water or 1 degree in 10 m3 would cause about the same volume change. Whether there is a floating hot layer or well mixed warm water, there will be about the same sea level rise. But if the heat is concentrated at the surface of the ocean, there would be big weather consequences. We have had a string of hot years lately, which I think is a sign of global warming (and poor mixing in the oceans).

About 20 years ago Marshall had 75 years of rainfall data with an average of 44 inches. The average for the last 20 years is 48 inches. The 4-inch increase is not statistically significant due to the large natural variation. Our 75-year pattern showed more than 51 inches 25% of the time and less than 37 inches 25% of the time. However, I believe we will continue to get more warm wet weather than our average as part of the overall global warming. We have been running about 25 degrees C dew points with 35 degrees C daytime highs lately - HOT and HUMID!

Write and tell me if you are interested in technical or general articles. Your Menu friend.

CHARLES DIXON

(Editor's note: JOIN A SIG - and get a LOT more out of Mensa)

E TX Mensa Spectrum, August 1992